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2008/10/09 Numerical forecast is added.

Weekly Forecast

2012/01/27(Fri) 12:00 UT updated

	Today	Tomorrow	2days	3days	4days	5days

Probability	30%	40%	40%	40%	40%	40%
Reliability	---	A	A	A	B	B

Stream interface arrival：2011/01/25(Wed) 2 days after the arrival.
Expected date of next stream interface:
Note: (Forecaster: YM)

Solar Wind Map Ver 1 Beta

Warm and cold colors represent fast and slow streams, respectively.
Fast stream tend to enhance the radiation belts.

Black and white crosses represent toward and away magnetic field polarities, respectively.
The black-white reversals tend to reduce the radiation belt flux.

More simulation results

Solar Wind & Space Radiation Environment (ACE, STEREO, NOAA/GOES, POES)

ACE and GOES realtime plots

Probability and Reliability Rank

This table shows the probability that 24 hour maximum value of >2MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit exceeds the NOAA/SEC alert level of 1000 PFU.

sunny: 10-30%
cloud: 40-60%
rain : 70-90%

A, B, C, and X denote reliability.

A: High reliability (High score and not changeable)
B: Moderately high reliability (not changeable)
C: Moderately low reliability (changeable)
X: Extraordinary variation is expected.

The probability for the period of X (Extraordinary variation)
The probability is 100% if today's 24 hour maximum value of >2MeV electrons exceeds the NOAA/SEC alert level.
The probability is 0% if today's 24 hour maximum value of >2MeV electrons is less than the NOAA/SEC alert level.

High score: Brier score of less than 0.2.
Changeable: More than 20% probability for applying new forecast.

The forecast is updated everyday by scientists at 00:00-12:00 UT. "Today" is 00:00-24:00 UT.

Notes

The forecasting system uses realtime solar wind data from the ACE spacecraft located at L1 point to detect particular solar wind structures such as interplanetary shocks and stream interfaces, which are useful as a precursor of killer electron enhancement [MK5, KM6]. Based on the solar wind speed, season, and magnetic field polarity, the daily percentage of killer electron enhancement after the precursor is calculated using last 10 year data set [KM7; MK7; MK8a; MK8b; MK8c] and uploaded on this website. The forecasting system was introduced in the website of Asia-Pacific Regional Space Agency Forum (APRSAF).

Acknowledgments:
This project "Investigation of BS Satellite Anomaly due to Space Radiation" is supported from the Housou Bunka Foundation.

The Realtime ACE, GOES and POES data are provided from http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ace/ and http://sec.noaa.gov/rt_plots/satenv.html respectively.

Liability:
Neither the member of this project, nor Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory, Nagoya University, nor any of its personal shall be responsible for any damages that may be caused by the use of information provided on this web site.

Copyright:
The copyright of materials on this web site is held by the project member, which is not distributed without permission.

Contact:

References:
[MK5] Miyoshi, Y., and R. Kataoka (2005), Ring current ions and radiation belt electrons during geomagnetic storms driven by coronal mass ejections and corotating interaction regions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L21105, doi:10.1029/2005GL024590.

[KM6] Kataoka, R., and Y. Miyoshi (2006), Flux enhancement of radiation belt electrons during geomagnetic storms driven by coronal mass ejections and corotating interaction regions, Space Weather, 4, S09004, doi:10.1029/2005SW000211.

[KM7] Kataoka, R., and Y. Miyoshi (2007), Space weather forecast of radiation belt electrons during magnetic storms driven by CMEs and CIRs, IUGG, Peruja, invited talk PPT.

[MK7] Miyoshi, Y., and R. Kataoka (2007), Radiation belt climatology, International CAWSES symposium, invited talk PPT.

[MK8a] Miyoshi, Y., and R. Kataoka (2008a), Flux enhancement of the outer radiation belt electrons after the arrival of stream interaction regions, J. Geophys. Res., 113, A03S09, doi:10.1029/2007JA012506.

[MK8b] Miyoshi, Y., and R. Kataoka (2008b), Probabilistic space weather forecast of the relativistic electron flux enhancement at geosynchronous orbit, J. Atm. Solar-Terr. Phys, 70, 475-481.

[MK8c] Miyoshi, Y., and R. Kataoka (2008c), Radiation belt weather, Earth-Sun System Exploration:Energy coupling within and between plasma regimes, Hawaii, invited talk PPT.

[MK8d] Miyoshi, Y., and R. Kataoka (2008d), Effective solar wind structure for the large flux enhancement of outer belt, AGU Fall meeting 2008, invited talk.

[KM8a] Kataoka R., and Y. Miyoshi (2008a), Magnetosphere inflation during the recovery phase of geomagnetic storms as an excellent magnetic confinement of killer electrons, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L06S09, doi:10.1029/2007GL031842.

[KM8b] Kataoka, R., and Y. Miyoshi (2008b), Average profiles of the solar wind and outer radiation belt during the extreme flux enhancement of relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbit, Ann. Geophys., 26, 1335-1339, 2008.